Forecast for NCAA March Maelstrom

Art By Robby Baxendale

Art By Robby Baxendale

Which team will cut down the nets in early April? This question will continue to puzzle college basketball fans for the near future. There does not seem to be a dominant team this season. This can be frustrating for fans at times, but it also makes each night more exciting as upsets are much more common than in past years. The University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill was the preseason number-one ranked team, but an early loss to Northern Iowa knocked them off of the top of the rankings. Many teams have replicated this course of action, making the number-one ranking somewhat of a revolving door. The Tar Heels of UNC play in the tough Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). For reference, the ACC produced last year’s national champion, Duke. The ACC also houses Virginia, Miami, Louisville, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. UNC has been very good all year, but some of their losses, including one to Louisville, have lead to doubts about whether or not they truly are an elite team. This group of teams likely heading to the tournament may seem impressive, but this cannot compare to the Big 12.

The Big 12 is lead by Oklahoma. Oklahoma is considered by many to be the best team in the country.

“This year is unique because there is no dominant team and there are about 10-15 teams that have an outside chance at getting to the final four but right now I think Oklahoma has put itself above the rest of the pack,” said sophomore Bobby Douglas. “With [Buddy] Hield and [Jordan] Woodard being numbers one and two in three-point field goal percentage in the country, there’s really nothing that can slow this team down on the offensive end.”

Oklahoma is lead by Buddy Hield. Hield is widely considered the best player in the country. He has shown up when it mattered most, scoring 46 points against Kansas, 27 against Iowa State and 32 against LSU.

“The way Buddy Hield has been able to show up against the best teams consistently has been really impressive,” said Douglas. “Personally, I don’t think we have seen anything like him in the college game ever. I mean he’s shooting around 46 percent from three—that’s unheard of—and he’s clearly the opponent’s main target on the scouting report every game, yet no one can stop him.”

Also making Oklahoma all the more impressive is the depth of their Big 12 conference, boasting Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor and Texas.

While there may not be a dominant team, there is certainly a clear surprise team. That team would be the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa was not ranked to start the year, but two wins over Michigan State, two over Purdue and one over Wichita State helped vault the Hawkeyes into consideration as an elite team. The Big Ten is fairly strong this year, containing Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue and Michigan.

Iowa may be the surprise team, but the Big East is the surprise conference. Xavier, Providence and Villanova have all been ranked in the top ten at one point this season. Villanova and Providence were expected to be among the top teams in the country, but very few expected Xavier to come on as strong as they have. Seton Hall, too, is having a strong year in the Big East, adding to the conference’s surprise element.

Last season, Kentucky was the talk of college basketball. Could they finish undefeated? Were they the best team in college basketball history? It’s safe to say things have changed. Now Kentucky is not even the best team in its conference, the Southeastern Conference (SEC). That title belongs to Texas A&M. The Aggies of Texas A&M have been great this year, even cracking the top five in the polls. Kentucky is still having a good year, even being ranked number one at one point. The SEC also houses LSU, led by star freshman Ben Simmons. Simmons is one of the most dynamic players in college basketball—if it weren’t for Hield’s absurd numbers, Simmons would likely be running away with the Player of the Year Award. Along with the three aforementioned teams, the SEC could also see South Carolina and Florida in the tournament.

The Pac-12 is a mess. Arizona has dominated the conference in recent years, but has had some rough patches throughout the season. Oregon has looked like the best team in the conference at times, often by a mile, but at other times they look questionable. UCLA, USC and Utah all have had some great games and some not-so-great games. Oregon State, led by under-appreciated star Gary Payton II, even has some quality wins to go along with some bad losses. All of these aforementioned teams could find themselves in the tournament come March.

With all the chaos in college basketball, this seems like the perfect time for a “mid-major” team to make a run to the final four. While this is uncommon, it has happened a few times in recent years: 2006 George Mason, 2010/2011 Butler, 2011 VCU, and 2013 Wichita State.

“I think it’s down to three that I’m looking at: Dayton, Wichita State and VCU. Dayton and VCU are both in the A10 which is the best mid-major conference out there depth wise,” said Douglas. “Wichita State has an All-American backcourt in Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker, so they can’t be overlooked despite their 2-4 start because they are fully healthy.” Douglas also points to a somewhat surprising team as another possibility: Monmouth. “If you want a real dark horse, give me Monmouth out of the MAAC,” said Douglas. “We all know about Monmouth’s bench, but Justin Robinson is really good.”

The Hawks of Monmouth own an impressive resume consisting of wins over UCLA, Notre Dame, USC and Georgetown.
This will likely go down as one of the most memorable college basketball regular seasons ever. Every night has the possibility of something crazy and memorable happening.

“Especially this year when the talent is so spread out among all different conferences,” said Douglas. “It makes every game really exciting to watch. Some would say that it’s less exciting with there being no clear favorite, but I think that this year it’s cool because anything can happen. I think we’ve already seen like 22-23 top 5 teams go down this year—that’s more than last year (21). So it speaks to the fact that this is the most unpredictable sport in the world.”